4 papers · 1 filter
From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events
Franco Du Plessis, Victoria Volodina, Chris A. Boulton +5
In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear syst…
Early warnings of critical transitions through vector autoregression: lessons from multiscale systems
Bryony Hobden, Paul Ritchie, Peter Ashwin
In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to…
Attracting measures
Julian Newman, Peter Ashwin
Under mild assumptions, the SRB measure associated to an Axiom A attractor has the following properties: (i) the empirical measure starting at a typical point near conv…
Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems
Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers, Peter Ashwin
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation becaus…