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Bayes in the sky: Bayesian inference and model selection in cosmology
Roberto Trotta
The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bay…
Monolithic or hierarchical star formation? A new statistical analysis
Marios Kampakoglou, Roberto Trotta, Joe Silk
We consider an analytic model of cosmic star formation which incorporates supernova feedback, gas accretion and enriched outflows, reproducing the history of cosmic star formation,…
On prospects for dark matter indirect detection in the Constrained MSSM
Leszek Roszkowski, Roberto Ruiz de Austri, Joe Silk +1
In the framework of the Constrained MSSM we derive the most probable ranges of the diffuse gamma radiation flux from the direction of the Galactic center and of the positron flux f…
Bayesian Calibrated Significance Levels Applied to the Spectral Tilt and Hemispherical Asymmetry
Christopher Gordon, Roberto Trotta
Bayesian model selection provides a formal method of determining the level of support for new parameters in a model. However, if there is not a specific enough underlying physical…
Comment on `Tainted evidence: cosmological model selection versus fitting', by Eric V. Linder and Ramon Miquel (astro-ph/0702542v2)
Andrew R Liddle, Pier Stefano Corasaniti, Martin Kunz +3
In astro-ph/0702542v2, Linder and Miquel seek to criticize the use of Bayesian model selection for data analysis and for survey forecasting and design. Their discussion is based on…
Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation
Roberto Trotta
I present a new procedure to forecast the Bayes factor of a future observation by computing the Predictive Posterior Odds Distribution (PPOD). This can assess the power of future e…