4 papers
Converting College Football Point Spread Differentials to Probabilities
Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for Division-I FBS college football
Jason T. Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Maddox, et al. [9, 10] establish Bayesian methods for estimating home-team in-game win probability for college and NBA basketball. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for est…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for National Basketball Association games
Jason T. Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016)…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball
Jason Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane Harvill
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differentia…