24 citations · 40 across the 12 of their papers we have counts for
12 papers
Anomalous Diffusion of Tropical Cyclones Observed in Huge Ensembles of Hindcasts
Abdoul R. Zeba, William D. Collins, Ankur Mahesh +5
We examine whether tropical cyclones (TCs) obey ordinary Brownian or anomalous diffusion using a huge ensemble (HENS) of hindcasts for summer 2023. Anomalous diffusion has been inf…
Surface temperature extremes produced by huge machine learning hindcasts of summer 2023
Mark Risser, Ankur Mahesh, William D. Collins +6
The summer of 2023 brought record-breaking heat extremes across the globe. In this work, we investigate how much worse these extremes might have become, given identical large-scale…
Watch an AI Weather Model Learn (and Unlearn) Tropical Cyclones
Rebecca Baiman, Ankur Mahesh, Elizabeth A. Barnes
In a changing climate, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of high-impact weather events. To real…
Examining Fast Radiatively Driven Responses Using Machine-Learning Weather Emulators
Ankur Mahesh, William D. Collins, Travis A. O'Brien +10
The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typic…
Constraining Atmospheric River Uncertainty Using Instantaneous Poleward Latent Heat Transport
Ankur Mahesh, William D. Collins, William R. Boos +2
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that play a crucial role in the global hydrological cycle. As a key mechanism of latent heat transport (LHT), they help maintain…
How does an AI Weather Model Learn to Forecast Extreme Weather?
Rebecca Baiman, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Ankur Mahesh
In a warming climate with more frequent severe weather, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of hi…
FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale
Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth, Ankur Mahesh +7
FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed…
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +13
Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems pr…
Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh, William Collins, Boris Bonev +12
In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multipl…
Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction
Jared D. Willard, Peter Harrington, Shashank Subramanian +3
The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior ski…
A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models
Noah D. Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Jaideep Pathak +6
Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have em…
Exascale Deep Learning for Climate Analytics
Thorsten Kurth, Sean Treichler, Joshua Romero +9
We extract pixel-level masks of extreme weather patterns using variants of Tiramisu and DeepLabv3+ neural networks. We describe improvements to the software frameworks, input pipel…