1 citations · 1 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers
Visualizing and forecasting subnational life-table death counts: Gap forecasting methods
Han Lin Shang, Andrea Nigri
Subnational life-table death counts are highly correlated across time and space and differ by gender. While these associations are helpful in improving forecasts through joint mode…
A Beta-GAM Hidden Markov Model for Proportion Time Series
Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang, Marco Bonetti
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distributi…
A Dirichlet-Multinomial-Poisson framework for the coherent analysis and forecast of cause-specific mortality
Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang, Francesco Ungolo
Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a p…
Age-period modeling of mortality gaps: the cases of cancer and circulatory diseases
Giacomo Lanfiuti Baldi, Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang
Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compa…
Extending finite mixture models with skew-normal distributions and hidden Markov models for time series
Andrea Nigri, Marco Forti, Han Lin Shang
We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability…
Null Distance and Temporal Functions
Andrea Nigri
The notion of null distance was introduced by Sormani and Vega as part of a broader program to develop a theory of metric convergence adapted to Lorentzian geometry. Given a time f…
Modelling higher education dropouts using sparse and interpretable post-clustering logistic regression
Andrea Nigri, Massimo Bilancia, Barbara Cafarelli +1
Higher education dropout constitutes a critical challenge for tertiary education systems worldwide. While machine learning techniques can achieve high predictive accuracy on select…
Deepening Lee-Carter for longevity projections with uncertainty estimation
Mario Marino, Susanna Levantesi, Andrea Nigri
Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting m…