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stat.ME2026
Visualizing and forecasting subnational life-table death counts: Gap forecasting methods
Han Lin Shang, Andrea Nigri
Subnational life-table death counts are highly correlated across time and space and differ by gender. While these associations are helpful in improving forecasts through joint mode…
stat.ME2026
A Beta-GAM Hidden Markov Model for Proportion Time Series
Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang, Marco Bonetti
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distributi…
stat.ME2025
Extending finite mixture models with skew-normal distributions and hidden Markov models for time series
Andrea Nigri, Marco Forti, Han Lin Shang
We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability…