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stat.ME2026
Visualizing and forecasting subnational life-table death counts: Gap forecasting methods
Han Lin Shang, Andrea Nigri
Subnational life-table death counts are highly correlated across time and space and differ by gender. While these associations are helpful in improving forecasts through joint mode…
stat.ME2026
A Beta-GAM Hidden Markov Model for Proportion Time Series
Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang, Marco Bonetti
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distributi…
stat.AP2026
A Dirichlet-Multinomial-Poisson framework for the coherent analysis and forecast of cause-specific mortality
Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang, Francesco Ungolo
Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a p…