16 citations · 37 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event Data
Faniry A. Razakason, Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner +1
Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Lo…
The Politics of Language Choice: How the Russian-Ukrainian War Influences Ukrainians' Language Use on Twitter
Daniel Racek, Brittany I. Davidson, Paul W. Thurner +2
The use of language is innately political and often a vehicle of cultural identity as well as the basis for nation building. Here, we examine language choice and tweeting activity…
Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner +1
Substantive research in the Social Sciences regularly investigates signed networks, where edges between actors are either positive or negative. For instance, schoolchildren can be…
All that Glitters is not Gold: Relational Events Models with Spurious Events
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner +1
As relational event models are an increasingly popular model for studying relational structures, the reliability of large-scale event data collection becomes more and more importan…
A Bayesian approach to modeling topic-metadata relationships
P. Schulze, S. Wiegrebe, P. W. Thurner +2
The objective of advanced topic modeling is not only to explore latent topical structures, but also to estimate relationships between the discovered topics and theoretically releva…
The Role of Governmental Weapons Procurements in Forecasting Monthly Fatalities in Intrastate Conflicts: A Semiparametric Hierarchical Hurdle Model
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner +1
Accurate and interpretable forecasting models predicting spatially and temporally fine-grained changes in the numbers of intrastate conflict casualties are of crucial importance fo…
Separable and Semiparametric Network-based Counting Processes applied to the International Combat Aircraft Trades
Cornelius Fritz, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann
We propose a novel tie-oriented model for longitudinal event network data. The generating mechanism is assumed to be a multivariate Poisson process that governs the onset and repet…
Censored Regression for Modelling International Small Arms Trading and its "Forensic" Use for Exploring Unreported Trades
Michael Lebacher, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann
In this paper we use a censored regression model to investigate data on the international trade of small arms and ammunition (SAA) provided by the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arm…
Exploring Dependence Structures in the International Arms Trade Network
Michael Lebacher, Göran Kauermann
In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used i…
A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Actor Heterogeneity: An Application to Global Weapons Transfers
Michael Lebacher, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann
In this paper we propose to extend the separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) to account for time-varying network- and actor-specific effects. Our application c…