4 papers · 1 filter
Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event Data
Faniry A. Razakason, Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner +1
Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Lo…
Censored Regression for Modelling International Small Arms Trading and its "Forensic" Use for Exploring Unreported Trades
Michael Lebacher, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann
In this paper we use a censored regression model to investigate data on the international trade of small arms and ammunition (SAA) provided by the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arm…
Exploring Dependence Structures in the International Arms Trade Network
Michael Lebacher, Göran Kauermann
In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used i…
A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Actor Heterogeneity: An Application to Global Weapons Transfers
Michael Lebacher, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann
In this paper we propose to extend the separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) to account for time-varying network- and actor-specific effects. Our application c…