From the 2 of 13 linked papers with an AI index.
13 papers
Bayesian Prediction under Moment Conditioning
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
The paper develops a Bayesian framework for prediction when only moment restrictions are available, using Kullback‑Leibler projection to define a conditional law for blocks of an e…
De Finetti + Sanov = Bayes: Exchangeable Prediction under Moment Constraints
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
The paper studies prediction for exchangeable sequences when only empirical moment constraints are imposed, showing that the limiting predictive distribution is a Bayesian mixture…
Chess Signatures of Play
Christian Turk, Nicholas Polson
A game of chess is a stream: a time-ordered sequence of moves, each carrying an engine evaluation, a measure of accuracy, a measure of position complexity, and a clock reading. We…
E-Values, Bayes Risk, Dual Role of Markov's Inequality
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
Two approaches to hypothesis testing, e-value testing and Bayes risk minimisation, both invoke Markov's inequality to control error probabilities. They differ in which distribution…
Kakeya Conjecture and Conditional Kolmogorov Complexity
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
This paper develops an information-theoretic framework for algorithmic complexity under regular identifiable fibering. The central question is: when a decoder is given information…
Bayes with No Shame: Admissibility Geometries of Predictive Inference
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
Four distinct admissibility geometries govern sequential and distribution-free inference: Blackwell risk dominance over convex risk sets, anytime-valid admissibility within the non…