Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

Abstract

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in the past.

Cited by in corpus (4)

• Year-ahead Prediction of Hurricane Season Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic
• Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines
• Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone genesis: a non-parametric model for the annual distribution
• Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes