Error dependencies in the space-based CNEOS fireball database
arXiv:2508.01454 · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202554224
Abstract
We evaluate the reliability of CNEOS-derived ephemerides of fireball events given the absence of the underlying data. We analyzed 18 events that have both (i) sufficient satellite information to derive orbits and (ii) ground-based observational counterparts. We quantify the uncertainties on these calibrated events using the orbital similarity criterion . We also examine the velocity components imbalance and identify discriminants that can indicate the accuracy of an event. We identify two groups in the CNEOS database. CNEOS data produces ephemeris determinations with <0.1 for fireballs reported either (i) after late 2017 or (ii) with impact energies above 0.45 kt with 74-78% of events having =0.030.02, while ~11% show <0.008. Our statistical test confirms these two parameters as the only reliable discriminants that, when combined, explain the two accuracy groups. Daylight, z-velocity component, low altitude, long duration, and latitude might also indicate errors, although the limited dataset may obscure correlations. No clear discriminants are identified for more restrictive cut-offs. We provide estimates of orbital uncertainties for calibrated events. The hyperbolic fireball subset in the CNEOS database appears as an outlier in the velocity imbalance test. Our results confirm that the fidelity of CNEOS fireball data improved significantly from 2018, likely due to the deployment of next-generation space sensors, and show a growing number of high-velocity events. Hyperbolic candidates should be interpreted with caution, as their velocities and inclinations likely reflect measurement errors. Accuracy constraints remain limited by the dataset size, as evidenced by the lack of statistically significant dependence on duration, preventing strong conclusions from being drawn.
Accepted in Astronomy & Astrophysics
References in corpus (40)
- Aspects of the Mass Distribution of Interstellar Dust Grains in the Solar System from In-Situ Measurements
- An Observational Upper Limit on the Interstellar Number Density of Asteroids and Comets
- The Feasibility and Benefits of In Situ Exploration of `Oumuamua-like objects
- Observation of metre-scale impactors by the Desert Fireball Network
- Orbital and Physical Characteristics of Meter-scale Impactors from Airburst Observations
- Realistic Detectability of Close Interstellar Comets
- The Sariçiçek howardite fall in Turkey: Source crater of HED meteorites on Vesta and impact risk of Vestoids
- The impact and recovery of asteroid 2018 LA
- Data on 824 fireballs observed by the digital cameras of the European Fireball Network in 2017-2018. I. Description of the network, data reduction procedures, and the catalog
- Orbital characterization of superbolides observed from space: dynamical association with near-Earth objects, meteoroid streams and identification of hyperbolic meteoroids
- The Žďár nad Sázavou meteorite fall: Fireball trajectory, photometry, dynamics, fragmentation, orbit, and meteorite recovery
- The January 7, 2015, superbolide over Romania and structural diversity of meter-sized asteroids
- Assessing interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS with the 10.4 m Gran Telescopio Canarias and the Two-meter Twin Telescope
- Collisional Consequences of Big Interstellar Grains
- On the age and formation mechanism of the core of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream
- Accurate 3D fireball trajectory and orbit calculation using the 3D-FireTOC automatic Python code
- Data on 824 fireballs observed by the digital cameras of the European Fireball Network in 2017-2018. II. Analysis of orbital and physical properties of centimeter-sized meteoroids
- Trajectory and orbit of the unique carbonaceous meteorite Flensburg
- Possible Interstellar meteoroids detected by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar
- The atmospheric impact trajectory of asteroid 2014 AA
- Identifying Near Earth Object Families
- A common origin for dynamically associated near-Earth asteroid pairs
- Performance of D-criteria in isolating meteor showers from the sporadic background in an optical data set
- Hyperbolic meteors: interstellar or generated locally via the gravitational slingshot effect?
- Dynamical evolution of near-Earth asteroid 1991 VG
- Probability of coincidental similarity among the orbits of small bodies - I. Pairing
- Estimating trajectories of meteors: an observational Monte Carlo approach -- II. Results
- Oort cloud perturbations as a source of hyperbolic Earth impactors
- Identifying meteorite droppers among the population of bright 'sporadic' bolides imaged by the Spanish Meteor Network during the spring of 2022
- 2015 Southern Taurid fireballs and asteroids 2005 UR and 2005 TF50
- Analysis of June 2, 2016 bolide event
- Characterization of the June epsilon Ophiuchids meteoroid stream and the comet 300P/Catalina
- Interstellar Meteors are Outliers in Material Strength
- Decameter-sized Earth impactors -- I: Orbital properties
- Statistical Equivalence of Metrics for Meteor Dynamical Association
- Asteroid 2017 FZ2 et al.: signs of recent mass-shedding from YORP?
- Can we predict the impact conditions of metre-sized meteoroids?
- Tau-Herculid meteor shower on night 30/31 May, 2022, and properties of the meteoroids
- The 18 May 2024 Iberian superbolide from a sunskirting orbit: USG space sensors and ground-based independent observations
- Delivery of DART Impact Ejecta to Mars and Earth: Opportunity for Meteor Observations