The Detection-vs-Retrieval Challenge: Titan as an Exoplanet
arXiv:2506.12144 · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae27c2
Abstract
Cassini's observations of Titan's atmosphere are exemplary benchmarks for exoplanet atmospheric studies owing to (1) their precision and (2) our independent knowledge of Titan. Leveraging these observations, we perform retrievals (i.e., analyses) of Titan's transmission spectrum to investigate the strengths/limitations of exoplanet atmospheric retrievals with a particular focus on the underlying assumptions regarding the molecular species included in the retrieval. We find that multiple hydrocarbons can be ``retrieved'' depending on the selection made ahead of a retrieval. More importantly, we find that the estimates of other parameters such as the abundance of key absorbers like methane can be biased by 0.5 dex (by a factor of 3) due to such choices. This shows that beyond the possible misidentification of a molecular feature (e.g., current debate surrounding dimethyl sulfide, DMS, in K2-18 b), the implicit molecular detections made pre-retrieval to avoid retrieving for hundreds of molecules at a time can bias a large range of parameters. We thus recommend sensitivity analysis to assess the dependencies of atmospheric inferences on such selections in tandem with complementary information (e.g., chemistry models) to support any pre-retrieval selection. Finally, we introduce an independent path to constrain the dominant atmospheric constituent, even when lacking observable absorption feature (e.g., H and N) through the scale height.
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