Challenging $\Lambda$CDM: 5$\sigma$ Evidence for a Dynamical Dark Energy Late-Time Transition

Abstract

Recently, there has been considerable debate regarding potential evidence for the dynamical nature of dark energy (DE), particularly in light of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) measurements released by DESI survey. In this work, we propose an agnostic test that simultaneously constrains the dark energy (DE) equation of state (EoS) and probes the possibility of a transition between the quintessence and phantom regimes, or vice versa. Our initial approach is independent of physical priors, allowing the data to determine which behavior best fits the parameters. We then consider a minimally modified gravity theory known as VCDM, into which we can map our initial approximation, placing it within a theoretically stable framework. To this end, we incorporate the most up-to-date datasets available, including BAO measurements from DESI-DR2, Type Ia Supernovae from the PantheonPlus, DESY5, and Union3 samples, as well as Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data from Planck. Our analysis reveals strong and statistically significant evidence for a quintessence-phantom transition across various data combinations. \textit{The strongest evidence is found for Planck+DESI+DESY5, with a significance exceeding $\sim$5$\sigma$ in favor of a quintessence-phantom transition at $z_{†}=0.493_{-0.081}^{+0.063}$}. Beyond this redshift, the EoS remains within the phantom regime, while for $z<z_{†}$, it favors the quintessence regime. Despite this strong indication, \textit{we find that such transitions do not resolve the $H_0$ tension}

arXiv comment16 pages, 6 Figures, 3 Tables. Matches the version published in Physical Review D

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