Forecasting the population properties of merging black holes

Abstract

Third-generation gravitational-wave detectors will observe up to millions of merging binary black holes. With such a vast dataset, stacking events into population analyses will arguably be more important than analyzing single sources. We present the first application of population-level Fisher-matrix forecasts tailored to third-generation gravitational-wave interferometers. We implement the formalism first derived by Gair et al. and explore how future experiments such as Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer will constrain the distributions of black-hole masses, spins, and redshift. Third-generation detectors will be transformative, improving constraints on the population hyperparameters by several orders of magnitude compared to current data. At the same time, we highlight that a single third-generation observatory and a network of detectors will deliver qualitatively similar performances. Obtaining precise measurements of some population features (e.g. peaks in the mass spectrum) will require only a few months of observations while others (e.g. the fraction of binaries with aligned spins) will instead require years if not decades. We argue population forecasts of this kind should be featured in white papers and feasibility studies aimed at developing the science case of future gravitational-wave interferometers.

arXiv comment16 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

References in corpus (57)

• Cosmic Star Formation History
• Exploring the Sensitivity of Next Generation Gravitational Wave Detectors
• Science Case for the Einstein Telescope
• Binary Black Hole Population Properties Inferred from the First and Second Observing Runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo
• Primordial Black Holes - Perspectives in Gravitational Wave Astronomy -
• Pulsational Pair-Instability Supernovae
• Use and Abuse of the Fisher Information Matrix in the Assessment of Gravitational-Wave Parameter-Estimation Prospects
• Computationally efficient models for the dominant and sub-dominant harmonic modes of precessing binary black holes
• Double Compact Objects III: Gravitational Wave Detection Rates
• Extracting distribution parameters from multiple uncertain observations with selection biases
• Science with the Einstein Telescope: a comparison of different designs
• Merging black hole binaries in galactic nuclei: implications for advanced-LIGO detections
• Formation and Evolution of Compact Object Binaries in AGN Disks
• The Effect of Pair-Instability Mass Loss on Black Hole Mergers
• The evolutionary roads leading to low effective spins, high black hole masses, and O1/O2 rates of LIGO/Virgo binary black holes
• The progenitors of compact-object binaries: impact of metallicity, common envelope and natal kicks
• Illuminating Black Hole Binary Formation Channels with Spins in Advanced LIGO
• Radiation Backgrounds at Cosmic Dawn: X-Rays from Compact Binaries
• IMRPhenomXHM: A multi-mode frequency-domain model for the gravitational wave signal from non-precessing black-hole binaries
• Are merging black holes born from stellar collapse or previous mergers?
• Most Black Holes are Born Very Slowly Rotating
• The effect of the metallicity-specific star formation history on double compact object mergers
• Setting the cornerstone for the IMRPhenomX family of models for gravitational waves from compact binaries: The dominant harmonic for non-precessing quasi-circular black holes
• Possible Indirect Confirmation of the Existence of Pop III Massive Stars by Gravitational Wave
• Does the Black Hole Merger Rate Evolve with Redshift?
• Hierarchical mergers of stellar-mass black holes and their gravitational-wave signatures
• Measuring the binary black hole mass spectrum with an astrophysically motivated parameterization
• Spin orientations of merging black holes formed from the evolution of stellar binaries
• Compact Binary Coalescences in the Band of Ground-based Gravitational-Wave Detectors
• Pulsational pair-instability supernovae in very close binaries
• Determining the population properties of spinning black holes
• The cosmic merger rate density of compact objects: impact of star formation, metallicity, initial mass function and binary evolution
• The impact of pair-instability mass loss on the binary black hole mass distribution
• The redshift evolution of the binary black hole merger rate: a weighty matter
• Forecasting the detection capabilities of third-generation gravitational-wave detectors using $\text{GWFAST}$
• Science-Driven Tunable Design of Cosmic Explorer Detectors
• Accuracy Requirements for Empirically-Measured Selection Functions
• Estimation of the Sensitive Volume for Gravitational-wave Source Populations Using Weighted Monte Carlo Integration
• Gwbench: a novel Fisher information package for gravitational-wave benchmarking
• No peaks without valleys: The stable mass transfer channel for gravitational-wave sources in light of the neutron star-black hole mass gap
• $\text{GWFAST}$: a Fisher information matrix Python code for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors
• Understanding the high-mass binary black hole population from stable mass transfer and super-Eddington accretion in BPASS
• GWFish: A simulation software to evaluate parameter-estimation capabilities of gravitational-wave detector networks
• Towards inference of overlapping gravitational wave signals
• The time delay distribution and formation metallicity of LIGO-Virgo's binary black holes
• Parameter estimation on compact binary coalescences with abruptly terminating gravitational waveforms
• Do unequal-mass binary black hole systems have larger ${\chi }_{\text{eff}}$? Probing correlations with copulas in gravitational-wave astronomy
• On the single-event-based identification of primordial black hole mergers at cosmological distances
• Exploring the sky localization and early warning capabilities of third generation gravitational wave detectors in three-detector network configurations
• Detectability and parameter estimation of stellar origin black hole binaries with next generation gravitational wave detectors
• Evidence for the evolution of black hole mass function with redshift
• Searching for anisotropy in the distribution of binary black hole mergers
• Evidence for a correlation between binary black hole mass ratio and black-hole spins
• Parameter estimation methods for analyzing overlapping gravitational wave signals in the third-generation detector era
• Inferring, not just detecting: metrics for high-redshift sources observed with third-generation gravitational-wave detectors
• Quick recipes for gravitational-wave selection effects
• A Fisher matrix for gravitational-wave population inference

Cited by in corpus (7)

• The Science of the Einstein Telescope
• Two-Step Procedure to Detect Cosmological Gravitational Wave Backgrounds with Next-Generation Terrestrial Gravitational-Wave Detectors
• Reconstructing parametric gravitational-wave population fits from non-parametric results without refitting the data
• Joint estimation of the cosmological model and the mass and redshift distributions of the binary black hole population with the Einstein Telescope
• Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
• Impact of facility timing and coordination for next-generation gravitational-wave detectors
• Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation