Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula

Abstract

One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.

17 pages, 11 tables

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• The unfairness of the revenue distribution system used in the UEFA club competitions
• Improving Ranking Quality and Fairness in Swiss-System Chess Tournaments
• The Swiss Gambit

Cited by in corpus (4)

• Tournament design: A review from an operational research perspective
• Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline
• Ranking matters: Does the new format select the best teams for the knockout phase in the UEFA Champions League?
• Are penalty shootouts better than a coin toss? Evidence from international club football in Europe