JUNO's prospects for determining the neutrino mass ordering

Abstract

The flagship measurement of the JUNO experiment is the determination of the neutrino mass ordering. Here we revisit its prospects to make this determination by 2030, using the current global knowledge of the relevant neutrino parameters as well as current information on the reactor configuration and the critical parameters of the JUNO detector. We pay particular attention to the non-linear detector energy response. Using the measurement of ${\theta }_{13}$ from Daya Bay, but without information from other experiments, we estimate the probability of JUNO determining the neutrino mass ordering at $\ge$ 3$\sigma$ to be 31% by 2030. As this probability is particularly sensitive to the true values of the oscillation parameters, especially $\Delta m_{21}^2$, JUNO's improved measurements of ${\sin }^2{\theta }_{12}$, $\Delta m_{21}^2$ and $|\Delta m_{ee}^2|$, obtained after a couple of years of operation, will allow an updated estimate of the probability that JUNO alone can determine the neutrino mass ordering by the end of the decade. Combining JUNO's measurement of $|\Delta m_{ee}^2|$ with other experiments in a global fit will most likely lead to an earlier determination of the mass ordering.

31 pages, 15 figures, many with multiple panels

References in corpus (17)

• New features in the simulation of neutrino oscillation experiments with GLoBES 3.0
• Measurement of the solar neutrino capture rate with gallium metal. III: Results for the 2002--2007 data-taking period
• Solar neutrino measurements in Super-Kamiokande-II
• CP Violation and Neutrino Oscillations
• Improved constraints on neutrino mixing from the T2K experiment with $3.13\times 10^{21}$ protons on target
• Statistical Evaluation of Experimental Determinations of Neutrino Mass Hierarchy
• Calibration Strategy of the JUNO Experiment
• TAO Conceptual Design Report: A Precision Measurement of the Reactor Antineutrino Spectrum with Sub-percent Energy Resolution
• Shedding light on LMA-Dark solar neutrino solution by medium baseline reactor experiments: JUNO and RENO-50
• Combined sensitivity to the neutrino mass ordering with JUNO, the IceCube Upgrade, and PINGU
• Probing neutrino quantum decoherence at reactor experiments
• PINGU and the neutrino mass hierarchy: Statistical and systematic aspects
• Mapping reactor neutrino spectra from TAO to JUNO
• Tests of Lorentz and CPT Violation in the Medium Baseline Reactor Antineutrino Experiment
• Mass Hierarchy via Mossbauer and Reactor Neutrinos
• JUNO Physics and Detector
• The benefits of a near detector for JUNO