Is seismicity operating at a critical point?

Abstract

Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase transitions. Using an augmented Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model that accounts for the spatial variability of the background rates $\mu (x,y)$, we present a direct quantitative test of criticality. We calibrate the model to the ANSS catalog of the entire globe, the region around California, and the Geonet catalog for the region around New Zealand using an extended Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm including the determination of $\mu (x,y)$. We demonstrate that the criticality reported in previous studies is spurious and can be attributed to a systematic upward bias in the calibration of the branching ratio of the ETAS model, when not accounting correctly for spatial variability. We validate the version of the ETAS model which possesses a space varying background rate $\mu (x,y)$ by performing pseudo prospective forecasting tests. The non-criticality of seismicity has major implications for the prediction of large events.

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Cited by in corpus (4)

• Question-driven ensembles of flexible ETAS models
• Revisiting Seismicity Criticality: A New Framework for Bias Correction of Statistical Seismology Model Calibrations
• Triggering of large earthquakes is driven by their twins
• Initial Foundation for Predicting Individual Earthquake's Location and Magnitude by Using Glass-Box Physics Rule Learner