A Program for Multi-Messenger Standard Siren Cosmology in the Era of LIGO A+, Rubin Observatory, and Beyond

Abstract

The most promising variation of the standard siren technique combines gravitational-wave (GW) data for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers with redshift measurements enabled by their electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, to constrain cosmological parameters such as $H_0$, ${\Omega }_m$, and $w_0$. Here we evaluate the near- and long-term prospects of multi-messenger cosmology in the era of future GW observatories: Advanced LIGO Plus (A+, 2025), Voyager-like detectors (2030s), and Cosmic Explorer-like detectors (CE, 2035 and beyond). We show that the BNS horizon distance of $\approx 700$ Mpc for A+ is well-matched to the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (VRO) for kilonova detections. We find that one year of joint A+ and VRO observations will constrain the value of $H_0$ to percent-level precision, given a small investment of VRO time dedicated to target-of-opportunity GW follow-up. In the Voyager era, the BNS-kilonova observations begin to constrain ${\Omega }_m$ with an investment of a few percent of VRO time. With the larger BNS horizon distance in the Cosmic Explorer era, on-axis short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) and their afterglows (though accompanying only some of the GW-detected mergers) supplant kilonovae as the most promising counterparts for redshift identification. We show that five years of joint observations with Cosmic Explorer-like facilities and a next-generation gamma-ray satellite with localization capabilities similar to that presently possible with Swift could constrain both ${\Omega }_m$ and $w_0$ to $15-20\%$. We therefore advocate for a robust target-of-opportunity (ToO) program with VRO, and a wide-field gamma-ray satellite with improved sensitivity in the 2030s, to enable standard siren cosmology with next-generation gravitational wave facilities.

The Astrophysical Journal Letters accepted version

References in corpus (32)

• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• Cosmic Star Formation History
• Multi-messenger Observations of a Binary Neutron Star Merger
• Gravitational Waves and Gamma-rays from a Binary Neutron Star Merger: GW170817 and GRB 170817A
• Large Magellanic Cloud Cepheid Standards Provide a 1% Foundation for the Determination of the Hubble Constant and Stronger Evidence for Physics Beyond LambdaCDM
• An Ordinary Short Gamma-Ray Burst with Extraordinary Implications: Fermi-GBM Detection of GRB 170817A
• The DESI Experiment Part I: Science,Targeting, and Survey Design
• Exploring the Sensitivity of Next Generation Gravitational Wave Detectors
• A gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant
• Swope Supernova Survey 2017a (SSS17a), the Optical Counterpart to a Gravitational Wave Source
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. II. UV, Optical, and Near-IR Light Curves and Comparison to Kilonova Models
• Spectroscopic identification of r-process nucleosynthesis in a double neutron star merger
• INTEGRAL Detection of the First Prompt Gamma-Ray Signal Coincident with the Gravitational Wave Event GW170817
• Constraining the Maximum Mass of Neutron Stars From Multi-Messenger Observations of GW170817
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/Virgo GW170817. I. Dark Energy Camera Discovery of the Optical Counterpart
• The Expansion of the Universe is Faster than Expected
• CMB-S4 Science Case, Reference Design, and Project Plan
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. V. Rising X-ray Emission from an Off-Axis Jet
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. VI. Radio Constraints on a Relativistic Jet and Predictions for Late-Time Emission from the Kilonova Ejecta
• Kilonova Light Curves from the Disk Wind Outflows of Compact Object Mergers
• The rate, luminosity function and time delay of non-Collapsar short GRBs
• First measurement of the Hubble constant from a dark standard siren using the Dark Energy Survey galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo binary-black-hole merger GW170814
• Determination of Dark Energy by the Einstein Telescope: Comparing with CMB, BAO and SNIa Observations
• Estimating cosmological parameters by the simulated data of gravitational waves from the Einstein Telescope
• Characterization of systematic error in Advanced LIGO calibration
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. VIII. A Comparison to Cosmological Short-duration Gamma-ray Bursts
• Improved constraints on H0 from a combined analysis of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic emission from GW170817
• GROWTH on S190814bv: Deep Synoptic Limits on the Optical/Near-Infrared Counterpart to a Neutron Star-Black Hole Merger
• Follow-up of the Neutron Star Bearing Gravitational Wave Candidate Events S190425z and S190426c with MMT and SOAR
• Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space
• Finding the One: Identifying the Host Galaxies of Gravitational-Wave Sources
• Astro 2020 Science White Paper: Joint Gravitational Wave and Electromagnetic Astronomy with LIGO and LSST in the 2020's

Cited by in corpus (3)

• Jet Launching from Binary Neutron Star Mergers: Incorporating Neutrino Transport and Magnetic Fields
• Cosmology Intertwined: A Review of the Particle Physics, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Associated with the Cosmological Tensions and Anomalies
• The Dark Side of Using Dark Sirens to Constrain the Hubble-Lemaître Constant