Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Abstract

We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 °C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 73.9% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 71.8-75.9%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.6% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.

arXiv commentsample increased: results updated with new records coming from the ongoing serological surveys

References in corpus (2)

• The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy
• Infection fatality ratio of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy

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