276 citations · 625 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
13 papers
VIBES: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach Integrating Within-Host and Between-Hosts Dynamics in Epidemics
Paulo Cesar Ventura, Yong Dam Jeong, Maria Litvinova +7
Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challe…
Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number
Andrea Bizzotto, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano +15
The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its a…
The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic
Marco Pangallo, Alberto Aleta, R. Maria del Rio Chanona +9
The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models de…
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: a retrospective cohort study
Mattia Manica, Piero Poletti, Silvia Deandrea +12
Background School closures and distance learning have been extensively applied to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Despite evidence of viral circulation in schools, the contributio…
Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data
Mattia Manica, Maria Litvinova, Alfredo De Bellis +18
Background. During 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by the emergence of lineages with increased fitness. For most of these variants, quantitative information is scarce…
Quantifying human mixing patterns in Chinese provinces outside Hubei after the 2020 lockdown was lifted
Yining Zhao, Samantha ODell, Xiaohan Yang +7
Contact patterns play a key role in the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in human populations. During the COVID-19 pandemic the regular contact patterns of the population…
A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters to model COVID- 19 burden
Agnese Zardini, Margherita Galli, Marcello Tirani +10
Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quanti…
Infection fatality ratio of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy
Piero Poletti, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda +13
We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all of them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found an infection fatality ratio of 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and iden…
Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection
Piero Poletti, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda +14
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 °C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positiv…
The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy
Paolo Cintia, Luca Pappalardo, Salvatore Rinzivillo +29
In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare sys…
The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy
Giorgio Guzzetta, Flavia Riccardo, Valentina Marziano +17
On March 10, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of COVID-19. Here we estimate that, fourteen days after the implementation of the strategy, the net repro…
The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy
D Cereda, M Tirani, F Rovida +21
In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienc…
Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Dina Mistry, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore y Piontti +12
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for…