276 citations · 625 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers · 1 filter
VIBES: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach Integrating Within-Host and Between-Hosts Dynamics in Epidemics
Paulo Cesar Ventura, Yong Dam Jeong, Maria Litvinova +7
Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challe…
Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number
Andrea Bizzotto, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano +15
The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its a…
Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data
Mattia Manica, Maria Litvinova, Alfredo De Bellis +18
Background. During 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by the emergence of lineages with increased fitness. For most of these variants, quantitative information is scarce…
A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters to model COVID- 19 burden
Agnese Zardini, Margherita Galli, Marcello Tirani +10
Solid estimates describing the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infections are still lacking due to under-ascertainment of asymptomatic and mild-disease cases. In this work, we quanti…
Infection fatality ratio of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy
Piero Poletti, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda +13
We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all of them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found an infection fatality ratio of 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and iden…
Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection
Piero Poletti, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda +14
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 °C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positiv…
The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy
Giorgio Guzzetta, Flavia Riccardo, Valentina Marziano +17
On March 10, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of COVID-19. Here we estimate that, fourteen days after the implementation of the strategy, the net repro…
The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy
D Cereda, M Tirani, F Rovida +21
In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienc…
Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Dina Mistry, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore y Piontti +12
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for…