The astrophysical odds of GW151216

Abstract

The gravitational-wave candidate GW151216 is a proposed binary black hole event from the first observing run of the Advanced LIGO detectors. Not identified as a bona fide signal by the LIGO--Virgo collaboration, there is disagreement as to its authenticity, which is quantified by $p_{\text{astro}}$, the probability that the event is astrophysical in origin. Previous estimates of $p_{\text{astro}}$ from different groups range from 0.18 to 0.71, making it unclear whether this event should be included in population analyses, which typically require $p_{\text{astro}}>0.5$. Whether GW151216 is an astrophysical signal or not has implications for the population properties of stellar-mass black holes and hence the evolution of massive stars. Using the astrophysical odds, a Bayesian method which uses the signal coherence between detectors and a parameterised model of non-astrophysical detector noise, we find that $p_{\text{astro}}=0.03$, suggesting that GW151216 is unlikely to be a genuine signal. We also analyse GW150914 (the first gravitational-wave detection) and GW151012 (initially considered to be an ambiguous detection) and find $p_{\text{astro}}$ values of 1 and 0.997 respectively. We argue that the astrophysical odds presented here improve upon traditional methods for distinguishing signals from noise.

6 pages, 1 figure, 1 table, publised in MNRAS

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• Improving significance of binary black hole mergers in Advanced LIGO data using deep learning : Confirmation of GW151216
• The population of merging compact binaries inferred using gravitational waves through GWTC-3
• The first five years of gravitational-wave astrophysics
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• Inferring the Astrophysical Population of Gravitational Wave Sources in the Presence of Noise Transients
• Beyond GWTC-3: Analysing and verifying new gravitational-wave events from community catalogues
• A follow-up on intermediate-mass black hole candidates in the second LIGO-Virgo observing run with the Bayes Coherence Ratio
• Searching for gravitational waves from compact binary mergers powering long gamma-ray bursts during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's O3 run