Social distancing versus early detection and contacts tracing in epidemic management
arXiv:2003.14102 · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110074
Abstract
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and contact tracing. In this paper we discuss the different effects of these ingredients on the epidemic dynamics; the discussion is conducted with the help of two simple models, i.e. the classical SIR model and the recently introduced variant (A-SIR, arXiv:2003.08720) which takes into account the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives.
arXiv comment16 pages, 8 figures in new version, to appear in Chaos
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