Stochastic effects on the dynamics of an epidemic due to population subdivision
arXiv:2003.08784 · doi:10.1063/5.0028972
Abstract
Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a population into mutually independent sub-populations. We show that subdivision activates two stochastic effects---extinction and desynchronization---diminishing the overall impact of the outbreak, even when the total population has already left the stochastic regime and the basic reproduction number is not altered by the subdivision. Both effects are quantitatively captured by our theoretical estimates, allowing us to determine their individual contributions to the observed reduction of the peak of the epidemic.
arXiv commentA proposal for a containment/exit strategy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Note the change in title from the original (2020/3/19) version "Containment strategy for an epidemic based on fluctuations in the SIR model"
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