Observation of a time lag in solar modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere
arXiv:1810.10530 · doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1181/1/012013
Abstract
The solar modulation effect of Galactic cosmic rays is a time-dependent phenomenon that is caused by the transport of these particles through the magnetized plasma of the heliosphere. Using a data-driven model of cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere, in combination with a large collection of data, we report the evidence for a eight-month time lag between observations of solar activity and measurements of cosmic-ray fluxes in space. As we will discuss, this result enables us to forecast the cosmic ray flux at Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity. We also compare our predictions with the new multi-channel measurements of cosmic rays operated by the AMS experiment in space.
arXiv comment6 pages, 4 figures, submitted to the proceedings of 26th Extended European Cosmic Ray Symposium and 35th Russian Cosmic Ray Conference. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1707.06916
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