Possible Origin of Memory in Earthquakes: Real catalogs and ETAS model

Abstract

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional probability (CP) methods we find that memory exists not only in inter-occurrence seismic records, but also in released energy as well as in the series of the number of events per unit time. Analysis of the conventional earthquake model (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences, ETAS) indicates that earthquake memory can be reproduced only for a narrow range of model's parameters. This finding, therefore provides additional accuracy on the model parameters through tight restrictions on their values in different worldwide regions and can serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models.

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Cited by in corpus (5)

• Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system
• Complexity based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the "spring predictability barrier"
• Scaling Laws in Earthquake Memory for Interevent Times and Distances
• Extracting correlations in earthquake time series using visibility graph analysis
• Asymmetry in earthquake interevent time intervals