Model independent inference of the expansion history and implications for the growth of structure

Abstract

We model the expansion history of the Universe as a Gaussian Process and find constraints on the dark energy density and its low-redshift evolution using distances inferred from the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Lyman-alpha (Ly$\alpha$) datasets of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, supernova data from the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) sample, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data from the Planck satellite, and local measurement of the Hubble parameter from the Hubble Space Telescope ($\mathsf{H}0$). Our analysis shows that the CMB, LRG, Ly$\alpha$, and JLA data are consistent with each other and with a $\Lambda$CDM cosmology, but the $\mathsf{H}0$ data is inconsistent at moderate significance. Including the presence of dark radiation does not alleviate the $\mathsf{H}0$ tension in our analysis. While some of these results have been noted previously, the strength here lies in that we do not assume a particular cosmological model. We calculate the growth of the gravitational potential in General Relativity corresponding to these general expansion histories and show that they are well-approximated by ${\Omega }_{\mathrm{m}}^{0.55}$ given the current precision. We assess the prospects for upcoming surveys to measure deviations from $\Lambda$CDM using this model-independent approach.

13 pages, 7 figures, code available at: https://github.com/dkirkby/gphist

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• Model-Independent Reconstruction of Quintessence Potential and Kinetic Energy from DESI DR2 and Pantheon+ Supernovae
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• Theoretical priors in scalar-tensor cosmologies: Shift-symmetric Horndeski models
• Model independent calibration for sound horizon combining observations of supernovae and transversal BAO measurements