Bayesian Estimation of Thermonuclear Reaction Rates

Abstract

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S-factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied in the past to this problem, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extra-solar planets, gravitational waves, and type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S-factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the d(p,$\gamma$)${}^3$He, ${}^3$He(${}^3$He,2p)${}^4$He, and ${}^3$He($\alpha$,$\gamma$)${}^7$Be reactions, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and big bang nucleosynthesis.

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References in corpus (11)

• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA)
• Primordial Nucleosynthesis: from precision cosmology to fundamental physics
• Sensitivity of p-Process Nucleosynthesis to Nuclear Reaction Rates in a 25 Solar Mass Supernova Model
• Activation measurement of the 3He(alpha,gamma)7Be cross section at low energy
• The Effects of Variations in Nuclear Processes on Type I X-Ray Burst Nucleosynthesis
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• Thermonuclear reaction rates and primordial nucleosynthesis
• Thermonuclear fusion rates for tritium + deuterium using Bayesian methods
• Bayesian estimation of thermonuclear reaction rates for deuterium+deuterium reactions
• Bayesian Estimation of the $S$ Factor and Thermonuclear Reaction Rate for ${}^{16}$O(p,$\gamma$)${}^{17}$F
• Alpha decay of thermally excited nuclei
• Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and Neutrino Cosmology
• An updated discussion of the solar abundance problem