A Twenty Year Decline in Solar Photospheric Magnetic Fields: Inner-Heliospheric Signatures and Possible Implications?

Abstract

We report observations of a steady 20 year decline of solar photospheric fields at latitudes $\ge$45${}^o$ starting from $\sim$1995. This prolonged and continuing decline, combined with the fact that Cycle 24 is already past its peak, implies that magnetic fields are likely to continue to decline until $\sim$2020, the expected minimum of the ongoing solar Cycle 24. In addition, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations of the inner heliosphere for the period 1983--2013 and in the distance range 0.2--0.8 AU, have also shown a similar and steady decline in solar wind micro-turbulence levels, in sync with the declining photospheric fields. Using the correlation between the polar field and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at solar minimum, we have estimated the value of the HMF in 2020 to be 3.9 ($\pm$0.6) and a floor value of the HMF of $\sim$3.2 ($\pm$0.4) nT. Given this floor value for the HMF, our analysis suggests that the estimated peak sunspot number for solar Cycle 25 is likely to be $\sim$ 62 ($\pm$12).

Accepted for publication in JGR (Space Physics)

References in corpus (3)

• Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
• The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 a consequence of Sun's meridional plasma flow variations
• Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles from a flux transport solar dynamo model

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