Testing the Empirical Shock Arrival Model using Quadrature Observations

Abstract

The empirical shock arrival (ESA) model was developed based on quadrature data from Helios (in-situ) and P-78 (remote-sensing) to predict the Sun-Earth travel time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [Gopalswamy et al. 2005a]. The ESA model requires earthward CME speed as input, which is not directly measurable from coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) were in quadrature during 2010 - 2012, so the speeds of Earth-directed CMEs were observed with minimal projection effects. We identified a set of 20 full halo CMEs in the field of view of SOHO that were also observed in quadrature by STEREO. We used the earthward speed from STEREO measurements as input to the ESA model and compared the resulting travel times with the observed ones from L1 monitors. We find that the model predicts the CME travel time within about 7.3 hours, which is similar to the predictions by the ENLIL model. We also find that CME-CME and CME-coronal hole interaction can lead to large deviations from model predictions.

17 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables

References in corpus (3)

• Coronal Hole Influence on the Observed Structure of Interplanetary CMEs
• Near-Sun Flux Rope Structure of CMEs
• The Relationship Between the Expansion Speed and Radial Speed of CMEs Confirmed Using Quadrature Observations of the 2011 February 15 CME

Cited by in corpus (18)

• Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU
• History and Development of Coronal Mass Ejections as a Key Player in Solar Terrestrial Relationship
• The Peculiar Behavior of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 24
• Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158
• Dependence of coronal mass ejection properties on their solar source active region characteristics and associated flare reconnection flux
• Origin and Ion Charge State Evolution of Solar Wind Transients during 4 -- 7 August 2011
• Sun-to-Earth Propagation of the 2015 June 21 Coronal Mass Ejection Revealed by Optical, EUV, and Radio Observations
• Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles
• What do halo CMEs tell us about solar cycle 25?
• A Modified Spheromak Model Suitable for Coronal Mass Ejection Simulations
• Ensemble simulations of the 12 July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection with the Constant Turn Flux Rope Model
• Source of Energetic Protons in the 2014 September 1 Sustained Gamma-ray Emission Event
• A new technique to provide realistic input to CME forecasting models
• Clustering of fast Coronal Mass Ejections during the solar cycles 23 and 24 and implications for CME-CME interactions
• Improving the Arrival Time Estimates of Coronal Mass Ejections by Using Magnetohydrodynamic Ensemble Modeling, Heliospheric Imager data, and Machine Learning
• Predicting the Time-of-Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections at Earth From Heliospheric Imaging Observations
• Global Energetics of Solar Flares: VII. Aerodynamic Drag in Coronal Mass Ejections
• Space, time and velocity association of successive coronal mass ejections