EXONEST: Bayesian Model Selection Applied to the Detection and Characterization of Exoplanets Via Photometric Variations

Abstract

EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian Inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian Model Selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case-study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the non-transiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically-relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.

Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

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• An Empirically Derived Three-Dimensional Laplace Resonance in the Gliese 876 Planetary System
• Characterization of Kepler-91b and the Investigation of a Potential Trojan Companion Using EXONEST
• Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons
• Inferring heat recirculation and albedo for exoplanetary atmospheres: Comparing optical phase curves and secondary eclipse data
• A Generalized Bayesian Approach to Model Calibration
• Supervised Learning Detection of Sixty Non-Transiting Hot Jupiter Candidates
• Combining Photometry From Kepler and TESS to Improve Short-Period Exoplanet Characterization
• On the Detection of Non-Transiting Hot Jupiters in Multiple-Planet Systems
• EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer
• Analyzing Exoplanet Phase Curve Information Content: Toward Optimized Observing Strategies
• Bayesian Model Testing of Ellipsoidal Variations on Stars due to Hot Jupiters
• The Telltale Heartbeat: Detection and Characterization of Eccentric Orbiting Planets via Tides on their Host Star
• Higher Order Harmonics in the Light Curves of Eccentric Planetary Systems
• Simultaneous multicolour optical and near-IR transit photometry of GJ 1214b with SOFIA
• Estimation of Planetary Photometric Emissions for Extremely Close-in Exoplanets
• A general polarimetric model for transiting and non-transiting ringed exoplanets
• Exoplanet Research with the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA)