The effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival: Correcting for healthy performer survivor bias with a rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model
arXiv:1108.0822 · doi:10.1214/10-AOAS424
Abstract
We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress's survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer's life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins' rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and -estimation method. We show in simulation studies that this approach corrects the bias contained in previous studies. We estimate that the effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival is 4.2 years, with a 95% confidence interval of years. There is not strong evidence that winning an Oscar increases life expectancy.
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS424 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)