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math.ST2022★ 1 cited

Clustered Archimax Copulas

Simon Chatelain, Samuel Perreault, Johanna G. Nešlehová +1

When modeling multivariate phenomena, properly capturing the joint extremal behavior is often one of the many concerns. Archimax copulas appear as successful candidates in case of…

math.ST2022★ 6 cited

Osband's Principle for Identification Functions

Timo Dimitriadis, Tobias Fissler, Johanna Ziegel

Given a statistical functional of interest such as the mean or median, a (strict) identification function is zero in expectation at (and only at) the true functional value. Identif…

math.ST2022★ 8 cited

Measurability of functionals and of ideal point forecasts

Tobias Fissler, Hajo Holzmann

The ideal probabilistic forecast for a random variable based on an information set is the conditional distribution of given . In the context of p…

math.ST2021★ 2 cited

Is the mode elicitable relative to unimodal distributions?

Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching, Tobias Fissler

Statistical functionals are called elicitable if there exists a loss or scoring function under which the functional is the optimal point forecast in expectation. While the mean and…

math.ST2019★ 21 cited

Forecast Evaluation of Quantiles, Prediction Intervals, and other Set-Valued Functionals

Tobias Fissler, Rafael Frongillo, Jana Hlavinová +1

We introduce a theoretical framework of elicitability and identifiability of set-valued functionals, such as quantiles, prediction intervals, and systemic risk measures. A function…

math.ST2019★ 6 cited

Elicitability and Identifiability of Systemic Risk Measures

Tobias Fissler, Jana Hlavinová, Birgit Rudloff

Identification and scoring functions are statistical tools to assess the calibration and the relative performance of risk measure estimates, e.g., in backtesting. A risk measures i…

math.ST2019★ 8 cited

Evaluating Range Value at Risk Forecasts

Tobias Fissler, Johanna F. Ziegel

The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a…

math.ST2019★ 7 cited

Supplement to "Erratum: Higher Order Elicitability and Osband's Principle"

Tobias Fissler, Johanna F. Ziegel

This note corrects conditions in Proposition 3.4 and Theorem 5.2(ii) and comments on imprecisions in Propositions 4.2 and 4.4 in Fissler and Ziegel (2016).