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20032026
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1.8k citations

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9 papers · 1 filter

econ.EM2019

High-frequency and heteroskedasticity identification in multicountry models: Revisiting spillovers of monetary shocks

Michael Pfarrhofer, Anna Stelzer

We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector auto…

econ.EM2019

Predicting credit default probabilities using machine learning techniques in the face of unequal class distributions

Anna Stelzer

This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performanc…

econ.EM2019★ 7 cited

Shrinkage in the Time-Varying Parameter Model Framework Using the R Package shrinkTVP

Peter Knaus, Angela Bitto-Nemling, Annalisa Cadonna +1

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are widely used in time series analysis to flexibly deal with processes which gradually change over time. However, the risk of overfitting in TV…

econ.EM2019

A Factor-Augmented Markov Switching (FAMS) Model

Gregor Zens, Maximilian Böck

This paper investigates the role of high-dimensional information sets in the context of Markov switching models with time varying transition probabilities. Markov switching models…

econ.EM2018

Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions

Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber

In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Ba…

econ.EM2018

Bayesian shrinkage in mixture of experts models: Identifying robust determinants of class membership

Gregor Zens

A method for implicit variable selection in mixture of experts frameworks is proposed. We introduce a prior structure where information is taken from a set of independent covariate…

econ.EM2018★ 20 cited

Flexible shrinkage in high-dimensional Bayesian spatial autoregressive models

Michael Pfarrhofer, Philipp Piribauer

This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatia…

econ.EM2018★ 2 cited

Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns

Florian Huber, Gregor Kastner, Michael Pfarrhofer

We forecast S&P 500 excess returns using a flexible Bayesian econometric state space model with non-Gaussian features at several levels. More precisely, we control for overparamete…

econ.EM2018

The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions

Manfred M. Fischer, Florian Huber, Michael Pfarrhofer +1

In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price…