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stat.CO2026
A Flat Connection: The Pooling Factor and the Geometry of Centring in Hierarchical MCMC
Aidan D. Bindoff
Standard MCMC diagnostics (, effective sample size, divergence counts) detect whether a chain has mixed, but not why it has not. We ask whether the centring/non-centring o…
stat.CO2026
smoothbp: Fast Bayesian Hierarchical Piecewise Regression with Smoothed Transitions and Spike-and-Slab Model Selection
Aidan D. Bindoff
Piecewise regression models are essential for identifying structural changes in longitudinal or spatial data across diverse scientific domains. While standard approaches often assu…