3 papers
stat.ME2026
Partial pooling predicts cross-validation reliability: a closed-form triage and Rao-Blackwellised cure for hierarchical LOO
Aidan D Bindoff
For hierarchical models, Pareto-smoothed importance-sampling leave-one-out cross-validation (PSIS-LOO) fails on the folds where a random-effect coordinate is data-driven and its gr…
stat.CO2026
A Flat Connection: The Pooling Factor and the Geometry of Centring in Hierarchical MCMC
Aidan D. Bindoff
Standard MCMC diagnostics (, effective sample size, divergence counts) detect whether a chain has mixed, but not why it has not. We ask whether the centring/non-centring o…
stat.CO2026
smoothbp: Fast Bayesian Hierarchical Piecewise Regression with Smoothed Transitions and Spike-and-Slab Model Selection
Aidan D. Bindoff
Piecewise regression models are essential for identifying structural changes in longitudinal or spatial data across diverse scientific domains. While standard approaches often assu…