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stat.ME2025

Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals

Amardeep Legha, Joie Ensor, Rebecca Whittle +7

When prospectively developing a new clinical prediction model (CPM), fixed sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. Bu…

stat.ME2025

A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models -- Part 3: continuous outcomes

Rebecca Whittle, Richard D Riley, Lucinda Archer +4

Clinical prediction models enable healthcare professionals to estimate individual outcomes using patient characteristics. Current sample size guidelines for developing or updating…

stat.ME2025

A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- Part 2: time-to-event outcomes

Richard D Riley, Gary S Collins, Lucinda Archer +9

Background: When developing a clinical prediction model using time-to-event data, previous research focuses on the sample size to minimise overfitting and precisely estimate the ov…

stat.ME2025

A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- part 1: binary outcomes

Richard D Riley, Gary S Collins, Rebecca Whittle +11

When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instabil…

stat.ME2024

Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification

Rebecca Whittle, Joie Ensor, Lucinda Archer +10

When evaluating the performance of a model for individualised risk prediction, the sample size needs to be large enough to precisely estimate the performance measures of interest.…