6 papers
The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions
Toby Ord
AI is increasingly being used to help with AI R&D. Under certain conditions this feedback loop might be able to produce an intelligence explosion, with rapidly escalating AI capabi…
Evaluating the Infinite
Toby Ord
I present a novel mathematical technique for dealing with the infinities arising from divergent sums and integrals. It assigns them fine-grained infinite values from the set of hyp…
Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?
Toby Ord
Building on the recent empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), I show that within their suite of research-engineering tasks the performance of AI agents on longer-duration tasks can b…
Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance
Toby Ord
The shift from scaling up the pre-training compute of AI systems to scaling up their inference compute may have profound effects on AI governance. The nature of these effects depen…
Bounds on the rates of growth and convergence of all physical processes
Toby Ord
The upper limit on what is computable in our universe is unknown, but widely believed to be set by the Turing machine -- with a function being physically computable if and only if…
Interpolation, Extrapolation, Hyperpolation: Generalising into new dimensions
Toby Ord
This paper introduces the concept of hyperpolation: a way of generalising from a limited set of data points that is a peer to the more familiar concepts of interpolation and extrap…