4 papers · 1 filter
Evaluating Approximations of Count Distributions and Forecasts for Poisson-Lindley Integer Autoregressive Processes
Rachel D. Gidaro, Jane L. Harvill
Although many time series are realizations from discrete processes, it is often that a continuous Gaussian model is implemented for modeling and forecasting the data, resulting in…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for Division-I FBS college football
Jason T. Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Maddox, et al. [9, 10] establish Bayesian methods for estimating home-team in-game win probability for college and NBA basketball. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for est…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball
Jason Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane Harvill
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differentia…
Spline-backfitted kernel forecasting for functional-coefficient autoregressive models
Joshua Patrick, Jane Harvill, Justin Sims
We propose three methods for forecasting a time series modeled using a functional coefficient autoregressive model (FCAR) fit via spline-backfitted local linear (SBLL) smoothing. T…