7 papers
Evaluating Approximations of Count Distributions and Forecasts for Poisson-Lindley Integer Autoregressive Processes
Rachel D. Gidaro, Jane L. Harvill
Although many time series are realizations from discrete processes, it is often that a continuous Gaussian model is implemented for modeling and forecasting the data, resulting in…
Converting College Football Point Spread Differentials to Probabilities
Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for Division-I FBS college football
Jason T. Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Maddox, et al. [9, 10] establish Bayesian methods for estimating home-team in-game win probability for college and NBA basketball. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for est…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for National Basketball Association games
Jason T. Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016)…
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball
Jason Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane Harvill
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differentia…
A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data
Joshua Patrick, Jane Harvill, Clifford Hansen
Design and operation of a utility scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant depends on accurate modeling of the power generated, which is highly correlated with aggregate solar irradianc…
Spline-backfitted kernel forecasting for functional-coefficient autoregressive models
Joshua Patrick, Jane Harvill, Justin Sims
We propose three methods for forecasting a time series modeled using a functional coefficient autoregressive model (FCAR) fit via spline-backfitted local linear (SBLL) smoothing. T…