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Ligation of random oligomers leads to emergence of autocatalytic sequence network
Patrick W. Kudella, Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov +1
The emergence of longer information-carrying and functional nucleotide polymers from random short strands was a major stepping stone at the dawn of life. But the formation of those…
Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity
Alexei V. Tkachenko, Sergei Maslov, Ahmed Elbanna +3
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispers…
Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in Illinois under non-pharmaceutical interventions
George N. Wong, Zachary J. Weiner, Alexei V. Tkachenko +3
We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian a…
Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19
Sergei Maslov, Nigel Goldenfeld
We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The…
Modeling microbial cross-feeding at intermediate scale portrays community dynamics and species coexistence
Chen Liao, Tong Wang, Sergei Maslov +1
Social interaction between microbes can be described at many levels of details, ranging from the biochemistry of cell-cell interactions to the ecological dynamics of populations. C…