most citedAre we misdiagnosing ensemble forecast reliability? On the insufficiency of Spread-Error and rank-based reliability metrics

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physics.ao-ph2025★ 3 cited

Are we misdiagnosing ensemble forecast reliability? On the insufficiency of Spread-Error and rank-based reliability metrics

Arlan Dirkson, Mark Buehner

It has been documented that Spread-Error equality and a flat rank histogram are necessary but insufficient for demonstrating ensemble forecast reliability. Nevertheless, these metr…

physics.ao-ph2025

Leveraging data-driven weather models for improving numerical weather prediction skill through large-scale spectral nudging

Syed Zahid Husain, Leo Separovic, Jean-François Caron +9

Operational meteorological forecasting has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recently, this landscape has faced disruption by the advent of da…