2 papers
physics.ao-ph2025
Are we misdiagnosing ensemble forecast reliability? On the insufficiency of Spread-Error and rank-based reliability metrics
Arlan Dirkson, Mark Buehner
It has been documented that Spread-Error equality and a flat rank histogram are necessary but insufficient for demonstrating ensemble forecast reliability. Nevertheless, these metr…
physics.ao-ph2025
Leveraging data-driven weather models for improving numerical weather prediction skill through large-scale spectral nudging
Syed Zahid Husain, Leo Separovic, Jean-François Caron +9
Operational meteorological forecasting has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recently, this landscape has faced disruption by the advent of da…