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stat.ME2025
Flexible Modeling of Demographic Transition Processes with a Bayesian Hierarchical B-splines Model
Herbert Susmann, Leontine Alkema
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transit…
stat.ME2024
Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing the Normal-with-Optional-Shrinkage Data Model Class
Leontine Alkema, Herbert Susmann, Evan Ray
Statistical models are used to produce estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Such models integrate multiple data sources to produc…
stat.ME2024
Flexibly Modeling Shocks to Demographic and Health Indicators with Bayesian Shrinkage Priors
Herbert Susmann, Leontine Alkema
Demographic and health indicators may exhibit short or large short-term shocks; for example, armed conflicts, epidemics, or famines may cause shocks in period measures of life expe…