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20242026
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math.ST2026

Theoretical Foundations of Conformal Prediction

Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Rina Foygel Barber, Stephen Bates

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of ta…

math.ST2026

False positive control in time series coincidence detection

Ruiting Liang, Samuel Dyson, Rina Foygel Barber +1

We study the problem of coincidence detection in time series data, where we aim to determine whether the appearance of simultaneous or near-simultaneous events in two time series i…

math.ST2026

Stability and Accuracy Trade-offs in Statistical Estimation

Abhinav Chakraborty, Yuetian Luo, Rina Foygel Barber

Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small changes in the training data. Stability p…

math.ST2025

The Limits of Assumption-free Tests for Algorithm Performance

Yuetian Luo, Rina Foygel Barber

Algorithm evaluation and comparison are fundamental questions in machine learning and statistics -- how well does an algorithm perform at a given modeling task, and which algorithm…

math.ST2025

False discovery rate control with compound p-values

Rina Foygel Barber, Richard J Samworth

In the setting of multiple testing, compound p-values generalize p-values by asking for superuniformity to hold only \emph{on average} across all true nulls. We study the propertie…

math.ST2025

Are all models wrong? Fundamental limits in distribution-free empirical model falsification

Manuel M. Müller, Yuetian Luo, Rina Foygel Barber

In statistics and machine learning, when we train a fitted model on available data, we typically want to ensure that we are searching within a model class that contains at least on…