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Credal Prediction based on Relative Likelihood
Timo Löhr, Paul Hofman, Felix Mohr +1
Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we prop…
Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty
Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies +3
Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees. In practi…
Conformal Prediction Regions are Imprecise Highest Density Regions
Michele Caprio, Yusuf Sale, Eyke Hüllermeier
Recently, Cella and Martin proved how, under an assumption called consonance, a credal set (i.e. a closed and convex set of probabilities) can be derived from the conformal transdu…
Conformal Prediction in Hierarchical Classification with Constrained Representation Complexity
Thomas Mortier, Alireza Javanmardi, Yusuf Sale +2
Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conform…