433 citations · 5.5k across the 131 of their papers we have counts for
7 papers · 1 filter
Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model
Oliver Mehling, Reyk Börner, Valerio Lucarini
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory…
Probabilistic Measures for Biological Adaptation and Resilience
Jorge M. Ramirez, Juan M. Restrepo, Valerio Lucarini +1
This paper introduces a novel approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with s…
Heterogeneity of the Attractor of the Lorenz '96 Model: Lyapunov Analysis, Unstable Periodic Orbits, and Shadowing Properties
Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun +1
The predictability of weather and climate is strongly state-dependent: special and extremely relevant atmospheric states like blockings are associated with anomalous instability. I…
Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere
Melanie Kobras, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Valerio Lucarini
The eddy-driven jet stream and storm tracks in the mid-latitude atmosphere are known to shift in latitude on various timescales, but the physical processes that cause these shifts…
Multistability and Intermediate Tipping of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation
Johannes Lohmann, Henk A. Dijkstra, Markus Jochum +2
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single…
Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's program and beyond
Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the cl…