431 citations · 681 across the 20 of their papers we have counts for
24 papers
Charged Deformation of a Hairy Black Brane: Perturbative Solution and Thermodynamics
Sangheon Yun
We study electrically charged black branes in four-dimensional Einstein-Maxwell-scalar theory with Maxwell coupling , whose potential has an AdS fixed point…
A Response Theory Probe for Learned Stochastic AI Simulators, Tested on Lorenz-63
João Böger, Simon Driscoll, Niccolò Zagli +2
Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifies that an emulator responds correctly…
Linear Response Theory for Jump-Driven Stochastic Systems: Transient Statistics and Escape Dynamics
Qingyan Meng, Jinqiao Duan, Valerio Lucarini
In this paper, we develop a linear response theory for a class of stochastic differential equations driven by jump processes. We investigate the response of the system to small tim…
Ruelle--Pollicott Theory for Metastable Systems: A Unified Framework for Tipping Transitions
Mickaël D. Chekroun, Valerio Lucarini
Tipping points---abrupt, potentially irreversible reorganizations of a system's statistical state---are commonly anticipated through critical slowing down: recovery slows, autocorr…
Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping
Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Derek DeSantis +5
Abrupt transitions in complex systems are often preceded by early warning signals. However, most indicators rely on the notion of critical slowing down and do not generally extend…
Beyond Critical Slowing Down: Slow Modes, Extreme Tails, and Field Decoherence in Tipping Transitions
Mickaël D. Chekroun, Valerio Lucarini
Tipping transitions are abrupt reorganizations between statistical regimes, usually anticipated through critical slowing down: recovery slows, autocorrelation and variance rise, an…
Ulam Approximation for Nonautonomous Systems: Equivariant Measures and Linear Response
Stefano Galatolo, Valerio Lucarini, Isaia Nisoli
Despite the prevalence of nonautonomous systems in applications, their statistical properties are much less understood than in the autonomous setting. Building on recent results on…
Climate network characterization of the AMOC edge state
Laure Moinat, Reyk Börner, Valerio Lucarini +2
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been identified as a tipping element in the Earth system. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is urgent to dev…
A mathematical framework for dynamic emergent constraints in climate science
Francesco Ragone, Valerio Lucarini
Emergent constraints in climate science are empirical relations that link the response to a forcing of a physical observable to the properties of other observables, with the aim of…
Data-driven analysis of metastability in a stochastic bistable system
Ankan Banerjee, Manuel Santos Gutierrez, John Moroney +1
We present a methodology to analyze metastable properties of a simple prototypical stochastic bistable system by identifying slow inter-well and fast saddle escape processes using…
Comparison principles and long time behavior for a diffusive Energy Balance Model with vertical resolution
Piermarco Cannarsa, Valerio Lucarini, Patrick Martinez +2
We study a two-layer one-dimensional energy balance model, which allows for vertical energy exchanges between a surface layer and the atmosphere, as well as meridional energy trans…
Geometric early warning indicator from stochastic separatrix structure in a random two-state ecosystem model
Yuzhu Shi, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng +2
Under-ice blooms in the Arctic can develop rapidly under conditions where conventional early warning signals based on critical slowing down fail due to strong noise or limited obse…
Nonequilibrium ensemble averages using nonlinear response relations
Manuel Santos-Gutierrez, Valerio Lucarini, John Moroney +1
The transient time correlation function (TTCF) method is widely used in molecular fluids to compute non-equilibrium transport quantities, providing improved signal-to-noise ratios…
A Mathematical Framework for Linear Response Theory for Nonautonomous Systems
Stefano Galatolo, Valerio Lucarini
Linear response theory aims to predict how an additional forcing alters the statistical properties of a reference system. Such questions have been studied predominantly for autonom…
Tipping points in complex ecological systems
Alan Hastings, Sergei Petrovskii, Valerio Lucarini +1
Tipping points are one of the hot topics in the modern physics of complex systems. But what is a tipping point? One generic definition describes it as ``a state of the system where…
Linear Response and Optimal Fingerprinting for Nonautonomous Systems
Valerio Lucarini
We provide a link between response theory, pullback measures, and optimal fingerprinting method that paves the way for a) predicting the impact of acting forcings on time-dependent…
Interpretable and Equation-Free Response Theory for Complex Systems
Valerio Lucarini
Response theory provides a pathway for understanding the sensitivity of a system and for predicting how its statistical properties change when a perturbation is applied. In the cas…
Kolmogorov Modes and Linear Response of Jump-Diffusion Models
Mickaël D. Chekroun, Niccolò Zagli, Valerio Lucarini
We present a generalized linear response theory for mixed jump-diffusion models -- combining Gaussian and Lévy noise interacting with nonlinear dynamics -- by deriving comprehensiv…
The Typicality of Regimes Associated with Northern Hemisphere Heatwaves
Christopher C. Chapman, Didier P. Monselesan, James S. Risbey +3
We study the hemispheric to continental scale regimes that lead to summertime heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere. By using a powerful data mining methodology - archetype analysis…
Bridging the Gap between Koopmanism and Response Theory: Using Natural Variability to Predict Forced Response
Niccolò Zagli, Matthew Colbrook, Valerio Lucarini +2
The fluctuation-dissipation theorem is a cornerstone result in statistical mechanics that can be used to translate the statistics of the free natural variability of a system into i…
Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections
Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio +1
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere an…
Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green's Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints
Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Detection and attribution (D&A) studies are cornerstones of climate science, providing crucial evidence for policy decisions. Their goal is to link observed climate change patterns…
Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models
Judith Berner, Ulrich Achatz, Lauriane Batte +23
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic pa…
Stochastic Climate Theory and Modelling
Christian L. E. Franzke, Terence J. O'Kane, Judith Berner +2
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced ord…