433 citations · 5.5k across the 131 of their papers we have counts for
56 papers · 1 filter
Multistability and Intermediate Tipping of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation
Johannes Lohmann, Henk A. Dijkstra, Markus Jochum +2
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single…
Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's program and beyond
Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the cl…
A Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis of the Climate Evolution of Cenozoic exhibits a Hierarchy of Abrupt Transitions
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Valerio Lucarini
The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transiti…
Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate complexity climate model
Lucy Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
The South and East Asian summer monsoons are globally significant meteorological features, creating a strongly seasonal pattern of precipitation. The stability of the monsoon is of…
Emergence of universal scaling in weather extreme events
Qing Yao, Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng +4
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistica…
Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave
Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Gabriele Messori +1
Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our unders…
Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere
Melanie Kobras, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Valerio Lucarini
Eddy saturation describes the nonlinear mechanism in geophysical flows whereby, when average conditions are considered, direct forcing of the zonal flow increases the eddy kinetic…
Robustness of competing climatic states
Charline Ragon, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini +3
The climate is a non-equilibrium system undergoing the continuous action of forcing and dissipation. Under the effect of a spatially inhomogeneous absorption of solar energy, all t…
Dynamical Landscape and Multistability of a Climate Model
Georgios Margazoglou, Tobias Grafke, Alessandro Laio +1
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from th…
Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change using Large Deviation Theory
Vera Melinda Galfi, Valerio Lucarini
Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applyin…
Introduction to the Special Issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate
Valerio Lucarini
We introduce the special issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate published on the Journal of Statistical Physics by presenting an informal discussion of some theoretical aspe…
Ranking IPCC Models Using the Wasserstein Distance
Gabriele Vissio, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini +1
We propose a methodology for intercomparing climate models and evaluating their performance against benchmarks based on the use of the Wasserstein distance (WD). This distance prov…
Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model
Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Francesco Ragone
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical…
The Physics of Climate Variability and Climate Change
Michael Ghil, Valerio Lucarini
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many s…
Spectral decomposition and extremes of atmospheric meridional energy transport in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes
Valerio Lembo, Gabriele Messori, Rune Graversen +1
The atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is mainly accomplished by planetary and synoptic waves. A decomposition into wave components hig…
Global Stability Properties of the Climate: Melancholia States, Invariant Measures, and Phase Transitions
Valerio Lucarini, Tamas Bodai
For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous…
A new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models
Valerio Lembo, Frank Lunkeit, Valerio Lucarini
This work presents a novel diagnostic tool for studying the thermodynamics of the climate systems with a wide range of applications, from sensitivity studies to model tuning. It in…
A New Mathematical Framework for Atmospheric Blocking Events
Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long mod…
Transitions across Melancholia States in a Climate Model: Reconciling the Deterministic and Stochastic Points of View
Valerio Lucarini, Tamas Bodai
The Earth is well-known to be, in the current astronomical configuration, in a regime where two asymptotic states can be realised. The warm state we live in is in competition with…
Reconsidering the relationship of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon using ensembles in Earth system models
Mátyás Herein, Gábor Drótos, Tamás Bódai +2
We study the relationship between the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planc…
Exploring the Lyapunov instability properties of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models
Lesley De Cruz, Sebastian Schubert, Jonathan Demaeyer +2
The stability properties of intermediate-order climate models are investigated by computing their Lyapunov exponents (LEs). The two models considered are PUMA (Portable University…
Edge States in the Climate System: Exploring Global Instabilities and Critical Transitions
Valerio Lucarini, Tamas Bodai
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critica…
Fluctuations, Response, and Resonances in a Simple Atmospheric Model
Andrey Gritsun, Valerio Lucarini
We study the response of a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic model of the atmosphere to various classes of perturbations affecting its forcing and its dissipation using the forma…
Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns
Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit, Francesco Ragone
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and effic…